Recent polls placing Kamala Harris as the frontrunner in the U.S. presidential race have raised concerns in Donald Trump’s campaign. However, before considering this a sure victory for the Democrats, it is crucial to analyze the data carefully. The Biden administration, of which Harris has been a cornerstone, leaves a mixed legacy, particularly among the Latino community, which could be decisive in the upcoming elections.
The promise of economic improvements for all Americans fell short. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing economic inequalities, and many Latinos, especially the undocumented, were excluded from government benefits. This has led to palpable disillusionment, as the economic recovery has been slower and more uneven for this group, casting doubt on Harris's ability to reconnect with an electorate that feels neglected.
Despite promises of comprehensive immigration reform, progress has been limited, and many Latinos feel betrayed. Although the Biden administration has reversed some of Trump's restrictive policies, such as family separations, deportations have continued, affecting many Latino families. The long-awaited pathway to citizenship for millions of undocumented people remains an unfulfilled promise, which could be a burden for Harris as she tries to attract this crucial voting bloc.
Access to healthcare has been another critical issue during the pandemic, where the Democratic administration has shown weaknesses. Despite efforts to improve vaccine distribution, many Latino families faced significant barriers to accessing quality healthcare, largely due to a lack of insurance and linguistic resources. Disparities in access to mental health services, vital for many communities, have also not been addressed with the necessary urgency.
Kamala Harris has a profile that could attract a more diverse and independent audience, especially among minorities, women, and young people. Her nomination could inject new dynamism into the Democratic campaign, but it also has the potential to alienate more conservative voters uncomfortable with her progressive stances. The question is whether Harris can capitalize on her strengths without repeating the current administration’s mistakes.
On the other hand, Trump has begun to adjust his strategy in response to Harris's possible victory, with seemingly more flexible stances on issues like abortion in an attempt to broaden his support base beyond hardcore conservatives. However, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough, especially if Harris consolidates support among Latinos and other key groups.
Harris has shown notable improvements among Latino voters, although she still hasn't reached the levels of support Biden had in 2020. She has regained ground in key states like Arizona and Nevada, which could be decisive in such a contested election. However, the Latino vote remains a battleground, and both parties will need to work hard to earn their trust.
Regarding immigration, neither candidate has presented tangible reforms or proposals that effectively address the issue. This is concerning, as migration remains one of the most divisive and urgent topics in U.S. politics.
Without a clear and effective plan, both candidates risk losing the support of a community that has been historically crucial in presidential elections. So, can Harris capitalize on this opportunity, or will she be trapped in the same unfulfilled promises of the Biden administration? Will Trump be able to adapt his campaign enough to counter Harris's potential rise?