The always complicated relationship with the United States is currently experiencing a period that could well be compared to a vehicle navigating the many roads and streets of Mexico: it moves forward, but between potholes and sinkholes.
In recent weeks, particularly following the arrest of drug kingpins Ismael "Mayo" Zambada and Ovidio Guzmán in the United States—where they arrived under somewhat strange and still unclear circumstances—there was a pointed remark by Ambassador Ken Salazar about the potential negative impact on investors of proposed judicial reforms.
This was followed by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's demand for respect for Mexican sovereignty, only for him to later ask that the issue of migration not be misused in the ongoing U.S. presidential campaigns.
Amidst all this, two key issues stand out: first, the dispute over the judicial reform project pushed by outgoing President López Obrador and its impact on investor expectations in Mexico, given the possibility of a judiciary subject to the whims of domestic politics and the authority of the Executive; and second, the longstanding and unresolved migration issue, which remains largely unsolved because the U.S. political body seems unable to agree on how to address it, even though this may be the most important part of the equation.
The Mexican judicial project has been criticized by foreign investors, and several international rating agencies have issued negative opinions, particularly given the less-than-optimistic prospects for the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026, and the U.S.'s distrust based on its unfavorable evaluation of López Obrador's government and the short-term outlook.
On the other hand, there is bipartisan agreement in the U.S. on the need for greater security control at the Mexican border and immigration reform, but Democrats and Republicans remain at odds over who should be eligible for U.S. citizenship, under what circumstances, and how to address the situation of more than twelve million undocumented residents—37% of whom are Mexican.
The fact is that the last successful immigration reform occurred in 1986, and since then, attempts have hit a wall.
The most recent attempt earlier this year is illustrative: carefully negotiated between Democratic and Republican senators, it was announced with great fanfare only to be torpedoed at the request of Republican presidential hopeful and former President Donald
Trump, who uses the "migration threat" as a campaign issue.
The bilateral relationship has never been and will never be easy, but the fact is that there is growing social, economic, and geopolitical integration in progress, despite the reluctance of political leaders.
By José Carreño Figueras
Contributor
JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM
@CARRENOJOSE1