Labor Day, traditionally marking the start of the presidential campaign in the United States, could be compared to a race where the final stretch is the moment for the last big push. The 2024 campaign is shaping up similarly.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy has marked an unprecedented month in U.S. politics, with the real achievement being her leveling the playing field with what had seemed to be Donald Trump’s overwhelming campaign.
Harris’s appearance injected new hope into the Democrats, who by July 21 were steeped in pessimism. They had lined up behind President Joe Biden, out of affection and respect, but with little conviction, as he appeared tired, old, and weak. The image said it all.
Now, 40 days later, the Democrats are almost brimming with exaggerated optimism, which some are calling "wonderful exuberance." Yet leaders are urging caution and hard work. As the specialized cyber publication Politico quoted, "They believe it’s a 60-40 race when it’s really a 50-50 race."
The fact is that Harris and the Democrats have managed to match the Republicans in enthusiasm, voting intention, and fundraising—no small feat. Furthermore, according to the data, they are slightly ahead in national polls and in at least three of the six states expected to decide the election.
Meanwhile, significant attention is already being placed on campaigns for control of Congress: Republicans believe they can gain a Senate majority, and Democrats aim to regain control of the House of Representatives, reversing the current situation with similarly slim margins: three seats in one and five seats in the other.
The fate of many candidates for Congress is closely tied to the presidential candidates, who, in turn, need all possible support for their own ends.
But in every case, whether at the top or bottom of the ticket, both parties and their candidates are within the margin of error. No one can claim victory yet. Over the next two intense months, both campaigns will present proposals and counter-proposals to voters.
While Trump would likely have no issue with a win as narrow as Biden’s in 2020—by mere tenths of a point in the swing states despite a clear gap in the popular vote—Harris is under pressure to secure a clear and decisive victory to avoid the allegations of fraud and irregularities that Trump and his allies have already begun to raise.
In the intensely polarized U.S. political climate, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the race until the actual vote, according to experts like Nate Silver.
BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS
CONTRIBUTOR
JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM
@CARRENOJOSE1