Foreign policy rarely has a decisive impact on presidential campaigns, but it can influence the election when it is linked to domestic issues. These are known as "intermestic" topics, affecting established groups within the country, such as Jews, Arabs, or Latinos, especially Mexicans.
When pro-Palestinian groups protested at the Democratic National Convention, demanding an end to U.S. support for Israel and the offensive in Gaza, they threatened to sway the elections in Michigan—an electorally important state with a significant Arab population—against the Democrats.
But the street demonstrations by pro-Palestinian groups were met with a more subtle yet firm response from pro-Israel groups, who funded opponents of pro-Palestinian representatives and succeeded in defeating them.
The issue of Israeli intervention in Gaza and the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion were perhaps the only international topics openly discussed at the Republican and Democratic conventions.
The challenge of Chinese commercial and geopolitical competition was mentioned, but mostly in connection with trade and national security issues.
Topics like border security and their links to immigration and drug trafficking, or the importance of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, are considered domestic issues.
The attitude toward Cuba is shaped as much by the "communist threat" as by the electoral influence of Cuban exiles; the case of Venezuela combines nationalization, exiles, and political interests.
According to an analysis by Chatham House, "What happens in November will have enormous consequences for the rest of the world, but, in the same way, what happens in the rest of the world could play a key role in determining who enters the White House. The world can only wait and watch."
Not long ago, it was suggested that President Bill Clinton ordered U.S. military intervention in the Balkans, where a war was raging between Serbs and Croats after the dissolution of Yugoslavia. The idea was popularized in a movie, Wag the Dog, to symbolize the magnification of a crisis to create the impression that intervention was necessary when the real motive was to divert attention from a scandal involving sexual allegations.
The point is that while parties and candidates may differ in their approach to foreign policy, the underlying issues are always connected to domestic ones.
Border security concerns Americans, but it is an issue that cannot be resolved without Mexico's participation—the other partner in the 3,000-kilometer land border that U.S. strategists consider their country's "unprotected underbelly," through which they fear terrorists might enter. The parallel issues of drug cartels and fentanyl smuggling, attributed to more than 80,000 annual deaths, are part of the package and again must involve the relationship with Mexico.
And, lastly, trade—a deeply important issue for Americans who seek to create a North American region that is already the most commercially significant in the world.
BY JOSÉ CARREÑO FIGUERAS
COLLABORATOR
JOSE.CARRENO@ELHERALDODEMEXICO.COM
@CARRENOJOSE1