It’s too early. There’s no small rival. Many things can still happen. All of this is true, but enough time has passed to make a first assessment—initial, tentative, with all the necessary caution—to gauge how the U.S. electorate has reacted to the decision to remove President Joe Biden from the Democratic ticket and replace him with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Such caution is not exaggerated. In 2016, almost all polls and statistical forecasts predicted Hillary Clinton as the winner. We know how that turned out. So, well, it’s better to approach this with skepticism.
On July 20, the day before Biden announced his decision to drop out of the presidential race, Nate Silver’s poll of polls (which adjusts daily according to both national and state trends) recorded that Biden’s vote intention was 46% and Donald Trump’s was 48.8%. Today, as I write these lines, 23 days later, the data shows that Kamala Harris has a preference of 46.6%, while Trump’s is 43.8%. The difference is slightly positive for Harris (+0.6%) and more substantially negative for Trump (-5%).
However, the peculiarity of the U.S. system—which decides the presidency not based on who gets the most votes but who wins the most seats in the Electoral College—requires us to review how the race is shaping up according to the electoral arithmetic of the states.
Of the 538 possible seats, it seems likely that the Republican Party will win 235, while the Democratic Party is expected to secure 222. The election will therefore be decided by the 81 seats in the Electoral College from seven states where the results currently appear close: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), and New Hampshire (4).
The day before Biden’s announcement, Trump led in the polls in almost all these states: Nevada (+9.8%), Arizona (+7.8%), Georgia (+7.7%), Wisconsin (+2.3%), Michigan (+5.5%), and Pennsylvania (+4.4%). The exception is New Hampshire, for which there is no data. With these numbers, Trump would have won 312 seats in the Electoral College, and Biden 222.
Today, August 12, Harris has overtaken Trump in nearly all these states: Nevada (+1.6%), Arizona (+0.8%), Wisconsin (+3.6%), Michigan (+3.8%), and Pennsylvania (+1.9%). Trump maintains his lead, though by a much smaller margin, in Georgia (+0.7%). And in New Hampshire, Harris is ahead (+6.7%). With today’s figures, the Electoral College composition would be 287 seats for Harris and 251 for Trump.
If the election were held today, Harris would win 287 Electoral College seats, and Trump 251.
In summary, the result of Harris’s 23 days of campaigning, in terms of the potential distribution of seats in the Electoral College, is a gain of 61 (not counting New Hampshire’s 4 due to the lack of prior information).
This isn’t over until it’s over, but for now, it seems the Democrats’ decision to change their presidential candidate has been well-received by the electorate.
BY CARLOS BRAVO REGIDOR
COLLABORATOR
@CARLOSBRAVOREG